2024年11月6日
宝马集团董事会成员、财务部电话会议成员 Walter Mertl 截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的季度报表
– 核对交货情况 –
幻灯片 2：宝马集团截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的季度报表
早上好，
女士们，先生们，
首先，我想澄清的是，我们今天发布的销售和盈利数据应该放在巨大挑战的背景下看待。
如您所知，我们于 9 月 10 日修改了 2024 年的指导方针。这主要归因于两个因素：
- 第一：暂时停止供货并采取与供应商交付的集成制动系统（IBS）相关的技术措施。
- 第二：中国需求持续低迷。
在 IBS 案例中，许多市场必须更换受影响的部件，然后汽车才能交付给客户。
这导致暂时停止交货，影响了销售和收入并推高了库存水平。
在第三季度，我们完全确认了高达数亿欧元的保修义务所需的准备金。
展望未来，我们在全球范围内实施技术措施方面已取得良好进展，预计今年年底将对大多数库存车辆完成这些措施的实施。
因此，在第四季度，我们将看到销量远高于第三季度，并且产品组合将有所改善。
幻灯片 3：宝马集团 2024 年第三季度业绩
现在让我们来看看第三季度的数据。
集团层面，收入大幅低于去年同期，为 324 亿欧元。
第三季度集团息税前利润总计17亿欧元。
财务结果受到公允价值计量负面效应的严重影响，导致7月至9月期间集团息税前利润达到8.38亿欧元。
第三季度集团息税前利润率为 2.6%。
年初至今，集团息税前利润总额接近 89 亿欧元，息税前利润率为 8.4%。
第三季度汽车部门息税前利润率为 2.3%，截至九月底的全年息税前利润率为 6.6%。
不计入华晨宝马收购价格分摊导致的折旧，本季度汽车部门息税前利润率为 3.5%，前九个月为 7.7%。
时隔9个月，宝马集团全球销量同比小幅下滑4.5%。
宝马集团的资产负债表自今年初以来增加了110亿欧元。
其中一半的增长是由我们的金融服务组合的增长推动的，因此代表着未来的盈利潜力。
剩余的增长主要与临时库存增加有关。
虽然第三季度业绩受到非正常因素的影响，但必须强调我们运营业绩的积极方面：
- 今年前九个月，我们的全电动汽车销量接近 30 万辆，大幅增长 19.1%。
- 截至 9 月底，纯电动汽车占我们全年交付量的 16.8%。
- 尽管暂时停止交付且不包括中国市场，宝马品牌全球销量仍增长了 4%。
- 在欧洲，该品牌实现了7.6%的销售额增长。
- 我们的核心品牌在美国继续保持良好地位并保持其市场份额。
幻灯片 4：汽车零售单位、纯电动汽车单位、汽车收入和汽车息税前利润
转向汽车领域。
第三季度，宝马集团向全球客户交付了约 541,000 辆宝马、MINI 和劳斯莱斯汽车。与去年同期相比，这一数字下降了 13%。
然而，我们的全电动汽车继续表现良好：向客户交付了超过 100,000 辆汽车 – 比去年同期增长了 10.1％。
我们的全电动汽车占总销量的 19.1%。
事实上，我们总销量的四分之一以上来自电动汽车，即纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车。
我们的电动汽车销售成功，充分证明我们有望实现欧盟 2025 年二氧化碳排放目标。
分部收入约为 280 亿欧元，低于 2023 年同期。
第三季度每单位收入继续与去年的水平持平。
7月至9月底的息税前利润总计6.34亿欧元。
截至九月底，本季度的息税前利润率为 2.3%，全年息税前利润率为 6.6%。
这让我看到了下一张幻灯片，其中详细介绍了运营结果的变化。
货币与原材料头寸净余额比上年增加2亿欧元。
就2024年全年而言，货币和原材料头寸的净余额应能带来近10亿欧元的顺风。
我们预计这将基本抵消材料成本带来的不利影响。
但我们看到了对供应链支持的额外请求。
与去年同期相比，销量、车型组合和定价效应的净平衡对第三季度的息税前利润产生了 21 亿欧元的负面影响。
这三个要素同比均呈下降趋势。
- 数量效应体现了我之前提到的销售额下滑。
- 由于暂时停止交付和中国市场状况对高端汽车市场影响较大，产品组合也受到不利影响。
这种情况将在第四季度得到扭转，因为我们预计产品组合将有所改善。 - 定价效应反映出全球艰难的价格环境以及中国疲软的消费者信心所带来的持续挑战。
经销商的运营健康对于我们具有战略意义。因此，在第三季度，我们与中国经销商联合实施了措施，以支持盈利能力和流动性。
与去年同期相比，研发费用增加了约1亿欧元。
前九个月，集团研发支出达到约66亿欧元。
9 月底，根据德国商业法典，研发费用率为 6.3%。这一数字比去年同期大幅上升，部分原因是支出增加，但也因收入减少而加剧。
九个月后，开发成本的资本化率为 35.3%——证明了我们持续致力于投资创新。
第三季度的销售和管理费用与去年同期持平，符合计划。
其他成本变化包括与 IBS 相关的高达数亿欧元的保修费用以及一些较小的补偿项目。
总体而言，与去年同期相比，该职位的净负效应达到 5 亿欧元。
幻灯片 6：第三季度汽车部门自由现金流
第三季度汽车部门的自由现金流总计负25亿欧元。
EBT 为汽车自由现金流贡献了约 4 亿欧元。
19亿欧元的营运资本变化反映了库存水平的增加。
资本支出和折旧的净效应使自由现金流减少了 12 亿欧元。
七月至九月的资本支出总计22亿欧元。
这意味着第三季度的资本支出率为 6.7%，前九个月的资本支出率为 5.3%。
和往年一样，我们的很大一部分资本支出将在第四季度产生。因此，我们仍然预计全年的资本支出率将在6%以上。
前九个月末，汽车部门的自由现金流总计负2亿欧元。
根据我们的指引，尽管计划在研发和资本支出方面进行峰值投资，但我们预计全年自由现金流将超过 40 亿欧元。
一方面，我们预计今年最后一个季度的息税前利润将环比大幅增长。
另一方面，我们还预计营运资本的减少将带来强劲的积极贡献。
我们在全球范围内更换受影响的 IBS 组件的工作取得了良好进展。
此外，我们还采取措施调整生产。
鉴于这些措施以及第四季度预计的销售量增长，我们预计到 2024 年底库存将达到去年的水平。
截至9月份，汽车业务的净金融资产总额接近400亿欧元。
第三季度，NFA 头寸受到自由现金流发展的影响。我们第四季度的目标是实现强劲的自由现金流，这将相应增加我们的 NFA。
鉴于我们强劲的资产负债表，宝马集团仍然致力于其股东回报战略，其中包括股息支付和股票回购。
10月25日，我们成功完成了正在进行的股票回购计划的第三部分。
在完成专门用于员工持股计划的普通股的单独回购后，我们将继续执行该计划。
我们预计，当前的20亿欧元计划将于明年4月完成，比最初计划提前半年多。
此外，宝马集团董事会计划在即将召开的年度股东大会上提出一项议程，寻求新的授权收购最高达股本 10% 的库存股。
幻灯片 7：金融服务部门今年 9 月迄今
让我们继续讨论金融服务领域。
第三季度，新车和二手车业务均延续了积极的趋势。
今年前9个月，全国新签订租赁和融资合同125万余份，同比增长12.5%。
包括所有新的融资和租赁合同在内的新业务量也大幅增长了13.6%，达到465亿欧元。
截至九月底，所有管理的合同总价值达到近1440亿欧元。
前九个月该部门利润同比下降 12.4%，至 21.5 亿欧元。
这一下降主要由于租赁期满车辆转售收入降低以及与利率衍生品评估相关的测量效应。
报告期内，整个信贷组合的信贷损失率为0.26%。
幻灯片 8：第三季度摩托车市场
在摩托车领域，核心市场持续的竞争形势影响了销量的发展。
第三季度交付量同比小幅下降 3.2%。截至 9 月份，交付量与去年同期持平。
该部门第三季度的息税前利润总计 2700 万欧元。
第三季度的息税前利润率为 3.8%，前九个月的息税前利润率为 9.5%。
幻灯片 9：2024 年展望
女士们，先生们，
我们预计第四季度中国固定成本将呈现正常的季节性特征，且需求将持续低迷。
但随着技术措施的逐步完成，我们还将看到销量远高于第三季度，产品结构也将得到改善。
因此，我们确认 9 月份针对集团及所有部门发布的调整后全年业绩指引。
集团税前利润将大幅下降。
在汽车领域，我们计划的交付量与去年相比略有减少。
纯电动汽车的份额将大幅增加。
我们预计息税前利润率将在 6% 至 7% 之间。
资本使用回报率（RoCE）应在 11% 至 13% 之间。
摩托车部门的交付量预计将与去年持平。
预计息税前利润率将在 6% 至 7% 之间，资本使用回报率 (RoCE) 将在 14% 至 16% 之间。
在金融服务部门，全年股本回报率（RoE）应在15%至18%之间。
我们的指导假设地缘政治和宏观经济条件不会显著恶化。
幻灯片 10：双管齐下的方法既能解决短期问题，又能解决长期问题
女士们，先生们，
宝马集团将继续全力专注于实现短期业绩，同时不损害我们的长期战略目标。
我们灵活的方法使我们能够适应不断变化的市场动态，并不断调整整个公司的成本结构。
与此同时，我们仍致力于投资于确保未来持久成功的战略项目。
我们第三季度的业绩受到了一次性不利因素以及中国市场持续挑战的影响。
然而，我们全电动汽车在第三季度的销售发展清楚地证明了我们实施电气化战略的持续成功。
今年，我们将为公司的未来制定一个决定性的方向。为此，研发支出和资本支出都将按计划在 2024 年达到峰值。我们预计全年研发支出占比将超过 5%，资本支出占比将超过 6%。
借助 NEUE KLASSE，我们将在设计、电池技术、软件和技术堆栈方面迈出重要一步。
这确保了我们将能够充分利用从明年年底开始覆盖整个产品组合的全部价值创造潜力。
NEUE KLASSE 将塑造我们公司的未来，并为所有利益相关者带来持续的成功。
谢谢。
Statement Walter Mertl, Member of the Board of Management of BMW AG, Finance, Conference Call Quarterly Statement to 30 September 2024
06.11.2024
Statement Walter Mertl, Member of the Board of Management of BMW AG, Finance, Conference Call Quarterly Statement to 30 September 2024
Check against delivery –
SLIDE 2: BMW Group Quarterly Statement to 30 September 2024
Good Morning,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
First, I want to clear up that the sales and earnings figures we are releasing today should be viewed in the light of extraordinary challenges.
As you are aware, we revised our guidance for 2024 on September 10th. This was mainly due to two factors:
- First: temporary delivery stops and technical measures related to the Integrated Braking System, or IBS, delivered by a supplier.
- Second: ongoing muted demand in China.
In the case of IBS, numerous markets have to replace the affected parts before cars can be delivered to customers.
This led to temporary delivery stops that impacted sales and revenues and drove up inventory levels.
In the third quarter, we fully recognised the necessary provisions for warranty obligations in the high three-digit million-euro range.
Looking forward, we have already made good progress with the implementation of technical measures worldwide and expect to complete them for most cars held in stock by the end of this year.
So in Q4 we will see volumes well above Q3 and an improved product mix.
SLIDE 3: BMW Group Performance per Q3 2024
Let’s now take a look into the numbers for the third quarter.
At Group level, revenues were significantly lower than in the prior-year quarter, at 32.4 billion euros.
Group EBIT totalled 1.7 billion euros in the third quarter.
The Financial Result was considerably impacted by negative fair value measurement effects and, consequently, Group EBT amounted to 838 million euros between July and September.
The Group EBT margin for the third quarter came in at 2.6 percent.
Year to date, Group EBT totalled almost 8.9 billion euros, resulting in an EBT margin of 8.4 percent.
The Automotive EBIT margin was 2.3 percent for the third quarter and 6.6 percent for the year to the end of September.
Excluding the depreciation resulting from the purchase price allocation of BBA, the Automotive EBIT margin came in at 3.5 percent for the quarter and 7.7 percent for the first nine months.
After nine months, the BMW Group’s global sales showed a slight year-on-year decrease of 4.5 percent.
The Balance Sheet of the BMW Group has increased by 11 billion euros since the beginning of the year.
Half of this increase is driven by the growth of our Financial Services portfolio and thus represents future profit potential.
The remaining increase is mainly related to temporary inventory build up.
While the third quarter results were impacted by extraordinary factors, it is important to highlight the positive aspects of our operational performance:
- Sales of our all-electric vehicles amounted to almost 300,000 vehicles in the first nine months of the year, a significant increase of 19.1 percent.
- BEVs made up 16.8 percent of our deliveries for the year to the end of September.
- Despite the temporary delivery stops and excluding the Chinese market, the BMW brand reported worldwide growth of 4 percent.
- In Europe, the brand achieved sales growth of 7.6 percent.
- Our core brand continues to be well positioned in the US and maintained its market share.
SLIDE 4: Automotive Retail Units, BEV Units, Auto Revenue and Auto EBIT
Moving to the Automotive Segment.
In the third quarter, the BMW Group delivered around 541,000 BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce vehicles to customers worldwide. This represents a decrease of 13 percent compared to the same quarter of last year.
However, our all-electric vehicles continued to perform well: Over 100,000 units were delivered to customers – 10.1 percent more than in the same quarter of last year.
The share of our all-electric vehicles was 19.1 percent of total sales.
In fact, more than a quarter of our total sales came from electrified vehicles – that is, BEVs, plus plug-in hybrids.
The successful sales development of our electrified vehicles is clear proof that we are well on track to fulfilling our CO2 emission targets in the EU for 2025.
Segment revenues amounted to around 28 billion euros – which was lower than in the same quarter of 2023.
In Q3 revenue per unit continues to be at last year’s level.
EBIT for July to the end of September totalled 634 million euros.
The EBIT margin came in at 2.3 percent for the quarter and 6.6 percent for the year to the end of September.
That brings me to the next slide with the details of the changes in the operational result.
SLIDE 5: Automotive Segment EBIT in Q3
The net balance of currency and raw material positions exceeded the previous year by 200 million euros.
For the full year 2024, the net balance of currency and raw material positions should provide a tailwind of close to one billion euros.
We expect this to nearly offset the headwinds from material costs.
But we are seeing additional requests for supply chain support.
The net balance of volume, model mix and pricing effects negatively impacted EBIT by 2.1 billion euros in the third quarter, compared to the previous year.
All three elements trended lower year-on-year.
- The volume effect reflects the sales decline I mentioned earlier.
- The mix was also adversely affected, since the temporary delivery stops and market conditions in China had a greater impact on vehicles in the upper premium segment.
This will turn in Q4, as we expect to see an improved product mix. - The pricing effect reflects the ongoing challenges of a difficult price environment globally as well as weak consumer sentiment in China.
The health of our dealers’ operations is strategically important to us. Therefore, in Q3, we have implemented measures jointly with our Chinese dealers to support both profitability and liquidity.
Research and development expenses increased by about 100 million euros, compared to the prior-year quarter.
Group expenditure for research and development reached approximately 6.6 billion euros in the first nine months.
The R&D ratio according to the German Commercial Code was at 6.3 percent at the end of September. It is significantly higher than prior year due in part to higher expenditure, but also compounded by lower revenues.
The capitalisation ratio for development costs stood at 35.3 percent after nine months – evidence of our ongoing commitment to investing in innovation.
Selling and administrative expenses for the third quarter were on par with the previous year, as planned.
Other Cost Changes include the high three-digit million-euro warranty expenses related to IBS and some smaller compensating items.
Overall, the negative net effect in this position amounts to 500 million euros, compared to the prior-year quarter.
SLIDE 6: Automotive Segment Free Cash Flow in Q3
Free cashflow in the Automotive Segment totalled negative 2.5 billion euros in the third quarter.
EBT contributed around 400 million euros to Automotive Free cashflow.
The change in working capital of 1.9 billion euros reflects the increase in inventory levels.
The net effect of capital expenditure and depreciation reduced free cashflow by 1.2 billion euros.
Capital expenditure for July to September totalled 2.2 billion euros.
This represents a capex ratio of 6.7 percent for the third quarter and 5.3 percent for the nine-month period.
A significant portion of our capital expenditure will accrue in the fourth quarter, as in previous years. As a result, we still expect the capex ratio for the full year to be over six percent.
At the end of the first nine months, free cashflow in the Automotive Segment totalled negative 200 million euros.
In line with our guidance, we expect a free cashflow of over four billion euros for the full year, despite the planned peak investments in R&D and capex.
On the one hand, we anticipate a significant sequential increase in EBT in the final quarter of the year.
On the other hand, we also expect a strong positive contribution from the reduction in working capital.
We are making good progress in replacing the affected IBS components worldwide.
In addition, we have taken measures to adjust our production.
Given these measures and the projected sales volume increase in Q4, we expect inventory to be on previous year’s levels by the end of 2024.
Net Financial Assets in the automotive business totalled close to 40 billion euros as of September.
The NFA position was impacted by the development of Free Cashflow in the third quarter. The strong Free Cashflow we are targeting in the fourth quarter will increase our NFA accordingly.
Given our strong balance sheet, the BMW Group remains committed to its shareholder return strategy, which includes both dividend payments and share buybacks.
On October 25th, we successfully completed tranche three of our ongoing share buyback program.
We will continue with this program following the completion of a separate buyback of common shares designated for our employee share program.
We anticipate that the current program of 2 billion euros will be finalized by April next year – more than half a year earlier than initially planned.
Additionally, the Board of Management of BMW AG plans to propose an agenda item at the upcoming AGM, seeking a new authorization to acquire treasury shares amounting to up to 10 percent of share capital.
SLIDE 7: Financial Services Segment YTD September
Let’s move on to the Financial Services Segment.
The positive trend in new business continued in the third quarter – for both new and used vehicles.
In the first nine months, more than 1.25 million new leasing and financing contracts were concluded. This represents a significant increase of 12.5 percent year-on-year.
The volume of new business, including all new financing and leasing contracts, also saw significant growth of 13.6 percent to 46.5 billion euros.
The total value of all contracts managed reached almost 144 billion euros at the end of September.
Segment earnings for the first nine months were 12.4 percent lower year-on-year, at 2.15 billion euros.
This decrease resulted mainly from lower income from the resale of end-of-lease vehicles as well as measurement effects related to the evaluation of interest rate derivatives.
During the reporting period, the credit loss ratio stood at 0.26 percent across the entire credit portfolio.
SLIDE 8: Motorcycles Segment in Q3
In the Motorcycles Segment, the ongoing competitive situation across core markets affected the volume development.
Deliveries experienced a slight year-on-year decrease of 3.2 percent in the third quarter. Through September, they were on previous year’s level.
The segment’s third-quarter EBIT totalled 27 million euros.
The EBIT margin came in at 3.8 percent for the third quarter and 9.5 percent for the nine-month period.
SLIDE 9: Outlook 2024
Ladies and Gentlemen,
in the fourth quarter, we expect the usual seasonality of fixed costs and ongoing muted demand in China.
But we will also see volumes well above Q3 and an improved product mix, as the completion of technical measures progresses.
Therefore, we confirm the adjusted full-year guidance we communicated in September for the Group and for all segments.
Group earnings before tax will decrease significantly.
In the Automotive segment, we are planning for a slight decrease in deliveries compared to last year.
The share of all-electric vehicles will increase significantly.
We expect to see the EBIT margin in a corridor between 6 and 7 percent.
The Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) should come in between 11 and 13 percent.
Deliveries in the Motorcycles Segment are projected to be on last year’s level.
The EBIT margin is forecast to be in a range between 6 and 7 percent, with a Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) between 14 and 16 percent.
In the Financial Services Segment, Return on Equity (RoE) should be between 15 and 18 percent for the full year.
Our guidance assumes that geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions will not deteriorate significantly.
SLIDE 10: Ambidextrous approach addresses the short and the long term
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The BMW Group remains fully focused on achieving our short-term results without compromising our long-term strategic objectives.
Our flexible approach allows us to calibrate to changing market dynamics and to constantly fine-tune our cost structures across the company.
At the same time, we remain committed to invest in strategic projects that will secure enduring future success.
Our performance in the third quarter was impacted by one-time headwinds as well as ongoing challenges in the Chinese market.
However, the sales development of our all-electric vehicles in the third quarter clearly demonstrates the continued success in implementing our electrification strategy.
This year, we are setting a decisive course for the future of our company. To that end both research and development spending and capital expenditure will peak in 2024, as planned. We expect our R&D ratio for the full year to exceed five percent, with a capex ratio of more than six percent.
With the NEUE KLASSE we will take a significant step forward in design, battery technology, software and tech stack.
This ensures that we will capitalize on the full value generation potential as it rolls out across the whole product portfolio, starting at the end of next year.
The NEUE KLASSE will shape the future of our company and deliver sustained success for the benefit of all stakeholders.
Thank you.
